The 2025 New England Patriots entered the season with little fanfare nationally. Coming off of two consecutive 4-13 seasons and on their third head coach in three years, they were expected to finish second at best in the AFC East behind the Buffalo Bills, and few were expecting anything resembling a Super Bowl contender. While quarterback Drake Maye had shown flashes of star potential, his rookie year had largely been marked by injury and inconsistent play. The team did little to sway the doubters in their first three games, starting 1-2, including a home loss to the wretched Las Vegas Raiders. However, over the 17 weeks that followed, the Patriots completely flipped the script. Buoyed by MVP caliber play from Maye and an opportunistic defense, the team went 13-1 the rest of the regular season to end the Bills’ five-year reign over the AFC East. Gritty playoff wins over the Chargers, Texans, and Broncos put the team one win away from their seventh Super Bowl trophy. While they were ultimately overmatched by a superior Seattle Seahawks team in the Big Game, the Patriots had dramatically reentered the conversation of teams to be reckoned with in the AFC for the foreseeable future.

While 2025 was a magic carpet ride of a season where any success was a pleasant surprise, 2026 proves to be anything but. For the first time since at least Mac Jones’ rookie year of 2021, and probably really since Tom Brady’s final year with the team in 2019, the Patriots go into a season expected to produce. While the Bills still provide a formidable challenge as long as Josh Allen is playing quarterback, the Patriots are many pundits’ pick to win the division again, and perhaps even represent the AFC in the Super Bowl for a second consecutive season. They have the third-best odds to win the AFC, behind the Bills and the Baltimore Ravens and tied with the Kansas City Chiefs. However, if history is any indication, the road to Los Angeles for Super Bowl LXI will not be as easy as it was in 2025.

The most obvious tangible difference between the last two Patriots seasons is the schedule. In 2025, the Patriots had one of the easiest NFL schedules this century, with an opposite winning percentage of a measly .391. In 2026, that number is .531, good for the sixth hardest in the league. The Patriots’ 2025 opponents were the object of great derision from opposing fans, justifiably so. The 2026 Patriots will have to prove that their success is because of who they are as a team, not who they were fortunate enough to play last season.

Another roadblock in the Patriots’ way in 2026 is the possibility of a Super Bowl hangover. Since the year 2000, only one team that lost the final game in the previous season has returned to that stage. That team was the 2018 New England Patriots, who ended up beating the Los Angeles Rams that season. Far more common are instances of teams drastically underperforming the year after losing a Super Bowl. The last two Super Bowl losers, the San Francisco 49ers in 2024 and Chiefs in 2025, both floundered to an under .500 record and missed the playoffs entirely. While superstitious fans often chalk this up to some kind of curse, it is more easily explained by a natural regression to the mean, injuries, or simply losing impact players to free agency. If the Patriots want to replicate their 2025 success, they will be looking to buck this trend.

With all of this being said, perhaps the biggest hurdle facing the 2026 Patriots will be a mental one. Simply put, fans and followers nationwide are expecting big things from this team. The mere fact that they have been scheduled to play on opening night against the defending champion Seahawks is proof that they are being taken seriously as one of the preeminent contenders in the sport. In all, the Patriots have six standalone, nationally televised games in 2026. This is the same number as the Chiefs, widely considered the most marketable team in the sport currently. While Drake Maye has appeared mature beyond his age and experience, he is still 24 years old with only a year and a half of professional football under his belt. It is one thing to produce out of the spotlight, but he will have to prove he can replicate that under the brightest spotlights. The Patriots will be hoping a bolstered wide receiver corps led by superstar acquisition A.J. Brown, as well as the calming leadership of head coach Mike Vrabel will be enough for Maye to take this next step.

For the first time in years, as a new NFL season approaches there is an excitement around what the Patriots can accomplish. It is now time for the team to prove that the fans’ excitement is warranted. If they can do that, they are set up to be a force to be reckoned with not only in 2026, but for many years to come.